Prediction on China¡¯s online search market 2012-2015
China¡¯s online search market witnesses a rapid growth in 2012. According to the prediction made by Analysys International, the market volume of China¡¯s online search market will be 28.33 billion Yuan in 2012, rising by 51.1% compared with last year. The figure will have attained 95 billion Yuan in 2015, up 235.3% compared with 2012.
China¡¯s online search market sees a rapid growth in 2012 with its market volume attaining 28.33 billion Yuan. Such a growth is due to the following factors. First, the stable output of marketing effects of online search offsets unfavorable factors of macro economy. Against the background of weak macro economy, advertisers increase their investment in the budget for key word ad. Compared with other forms of ad, key word ad with low cost possesses competitive advantages. The economic factors lead the market to take the developing model ¡°fixed+ added volume¡±, which is a key factor for the stable growth of the market. Second, Long tail resources bring out their effects. Take Baidu as an example; there are more than 4000 million advertisers for Baidu, among them, the number of small-and-medium-sized enterprises grows dramatically. Their enhanced economic strength and growing recognition of online search market push forward the growth of the market volume. Finally, greater efforts have been made in brand marketing of online search market. Over many years development, the media value of online search market gains recognition from advertisers. Advertisers find that online search media not only meets their demands for effect marketing, but also constitutes a platform for brand marketing. More and more brand advertisers choose online search as a tool. This helps the absolute growth of the market volume of online search market.
In addition to online search media, SEM service providers have undergone changes in 2012. With internet users¡¯ changing behavior, data is not the normative one which is simple and could be identified directly by techniques. Users¡¯ behavior penetrates into the data represented by social media and the data even becomes data stacking under the IOT circumstances. Great changes have taken place in the content and magnitude of data, which requires SEM service providers to update on data process and technical analysis to cope with the transition of user data from scale data to individualized data. For example, SEM service providers such as Cube AD made substantial changes on it. Apart from existed services, demands from advertisers in different industries split apart gradually. MOS model is adopted to analyze and meet advertisers¡¯ different demands and improve their service capabilities. It is well known that data and techniques is core for the survival of SEM service providers.
China¡¯s online search market will meet with both challenges and opportunities.
First, the advantages of demographic dividend in the internet filed decrease. The booming development of China¡¯s intent users support a lot of internet enterprises. According to the report from CNNIC, the growth speed of the internet user size has reduced since 2011. By the first half year of 2012, the user size has been 538 million with a growth rate being 4.87% over the half year. The user size of online search is 429 million, with a growth rate being 5.21% over the half year. The disappearance of advantages in demographic dividend leads the online search operators to move from placing emphasis on user size to research of user behavior.
Second, the entry of 360 in the search filed is an important factor for the market. 360 Search doesn¡¯t take many moves in commercial aspect. However, there¡¯s ¡°blood generation¡± system (the internal transformation of traffic among security, browser and search engine) in 360 itself. Besides, the stable traffic increase from 360 Search exerts influence on the overall traffic of Baidu. It affects Baidu¡¯s performance on advertisers¡¯ consumption to some extent. ¡°Search+¡± is a hot issue in the market. The existence of the model means on one hand, search providers integrate more different models, on the other hand, ¡°search¡± serves other media forms by tools and there¡¯s transformation from business to liquidity based on key word ad.
Third, the fact that mobile internet media distract some traffic from internet media is a well-known phenomenon. Overshadowed by the presentation of marketing and coverage, the marketing value of mobile internet doesn¡¯t reflect in large scale and there¡¯s a ceiling on the market. The traffic is moved from intent market to mobile internet, but its commercial value doesn¡¯t move or increase. This is one of the factors to affect the expansion of online ad market.
Fourth, ¡°search+¡± modal brings about opportunities for the online search market. The search tool generates derivative effects. The internal integration of online search becomes a trend. Some vertical field such Qunar and Dianping begin to implant search tool on their website. Search tool will function in a wider range.
Finally, search in community and mobile search is a developing direction which requires an active exploration. Social media and mobile is a swamp for search filed. We need to spend time in making down-to-earth researches and developments.
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The industrial analyses, provided by Analysys International, mainly reflect the current situation, trend, inflection point, commercial law and manufacturers¡¯ situation. The figures and statistics are drawn by adopting a unique industrial analysis model combined with the research and study methods used by market, industry and manufactures. All the data are based on industrial macro and historical data, seasonal end-users¡¯ and business information.
It is believed that data concluded from research into market and trade is within acceptable errors. It can reflect the trend and commercial laws accurately.
Results obtained by the means of professional research methods are for reference. The actual data can be obtained by checking on financial report issued by manufacturers.
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